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Market Contradictions Amid Iran Conflict

New York Times Business •
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Financial markets sent contradictory signals in April as oil prices surged to four-year highs while stocks posted strong gains. The S&P 500 rose nearly 10 percent during the month, its best performance since November 2020, even as Brent crude exceeded $120 per barrel amid the Iran conflict. Investors seemed to focus on the de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran rather than the ongoing tensions.

Tech giants led the stock rally, with Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta spending $130 billion on data centers. These companies, part of the "Magnificent 7," saw their shares rise nearly 15% in April. Meanwhile, S&P 500 companies reported average first-quarter earnings growth of approximately 15%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings expansion.

The divergent market signals reflect different time horizons for investors. Oil traders focus on near-term futures contracts, with July Brent crude prices elevated, while December futures remain below $90 per barrel. Stock investors, however, look beyond current geopolitical tensions to longer-term earnings prospects. Trading volumes have been subdued, with some investors using derivatives to position for continued gains without full exposure to potential pullbacks.