Washington’s defense contractors are racing to replenish missiles and precision munitions spent in the Iran conflict, but the raw materials that power those weapons come almost entirely from China. Rare‑earth elements and high‑performance magnets are essential for everything from F‑35 fighters to Tomahawk cruise missiles, and Beijing’s export controls have tightened since late 2024. The scramble underscores a growing supply‑chain vulnerability.

Pentagon data show the United States has already expended roughly half of its long‑range stealth cruise missiles and fired ten times the annual Tomahawk inventory since February. Replacing that firepower will demand billions of dollars; the FY 2027 defense budget, a $1.5 trillion request, earmarks funds to secure alternative sources of critical minerals. Analysts warn that every additional missile launch deepens reliance on Chinese supply.

U.S. officials are accelerating domestic mining projects and courting allies such as Australia and Canada, yet those supply chains will take years to scale. Meanwhile, Chinese analysts argue any extension of the current minerals pact will require U.S. concessions on tariffs or semiconductor controls. For now, America’s ability to sustain high‑tempo operations hinges on unlocking non‑Chinese rare‑earth sources.