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Yardeni Research Bullish on 2026 US Economy, S&P 500 Growth

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Yardeni Research projects robust U.S. economic growth through 2026 and beyond, forecasting GDP could return to 3.6% or higher during the 'Roaring 2020s' and 'Roaring 2030s.' The firm cites accelerating momentum with real GDP rising 3.8% in Q2 and 4.4% in Q3 2025, with the Atlanta Fed tracking a 4.2% pace for Q4. This growth trajectory supports an optimistic outlook for corporate earnings.

S&P 500 operating earnings are expected to climb from $273.59 in 2025 to over $310 in 2026 and $350 in 2027. Key drivers include consumer spending bolstered by larger tax refunds under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, with typical refunds potentially reaching nearly $4,000. The wealth effect from Baby Boomers holding a record $88.5 trillion in net worth also supports sustained consumption.

Additional catalysts include high technology capital spending, onshoring momentum under the Trump administration, and a productivity boom powered by Biotechnology, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, and Nanotechnology. Fiscal and monetary policy are expected to provide support, with the Fed's 175-basis-point rate cuts since late 2024 helping to fuel growth. Rising energy investment, trade pattern shifts, and improving sentiment may revive 'animal spirits' and sustain U.S. economic strength through the decade.

Quick Fact: Yardeni Research projects S&P 500 operating earnings could reach $350 in 2027.