Wolfe Research analysts have broken down the implications of President Trump's shift to 15% global tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, replacing the emergency tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. The new tariff rate covers 78% of the previously invalidated levies, reducing the modeled effective tariff rate from 15.76% to 14.23%, a modest 10% reduction in total impact.

Analysts Tobin Marcus and Chutong Zhu note that while the aggregate rate remains similar, the shift creates winners and losers at the country level. Brazil and China emerge as standout beneficiaries, seeing reduced U.S. import tariffs, while Peru and the United Kingdom face temporary disadvantages. The analysts emphasize that Section 122 tariffs apply uniformly across all countries, superseding any customized bilateral agreements previously negotiated through emergency powers.

The 150-day Section 122 tariffs face uncertainty beyond their expiration, with Congress holding the authority to extend them. Wolfe analysts predict Trump will likely transition to Section 301 tariffs as a more durable alternative, which allows for country-specific duties targeting unfair trade practices. They also anticipate refunds for companies impacted by the invalidated IEEPA tariffs, citing established legal procedures for recovering unlawfully collected duties.