Bank of America forecasts Winter Storm Fern will deliver a 0.5–1.5 percentage point drag on first-quarter U.S. GDP growth. Analyst Aditya Bhave cites the 2021 Viola storm as precedent, where consumer spending fell sharply and card data showed a 3.7% annual decline.

The bank’s research indicates Viola cost at least 0.6 percentage points of spending over one month, translating to a 0.5-point GDP hit. Bhave notes Fern’s profile differs—heavier Northeast snowfall but less power disruption—creating cross-currents for the final economic impact estimate.

BofA believes the damage will be short-lived. The analyst remains bullish, arguing there is as much upside to second-quarter GDP as there is downside to the first quarter, suggesting a swift rebound once weather disruptions clear.