Wolfe Research analyst Stephanie Roth identifies the January FOMC meeting as the most likely 90-minute window for President Donald Trump to announce his Federal Reserve chair pick. Roth suggests this timing could divert attention from a Fed that hasn't cut rates, with the announcement potentially coming this week or within the next couple of weeks.

The analysis notes Governor Miran’s seat turns over on January 31, making it logical for Trump’s selection to fill that vacancy ahead of the March FOMC. This is especially important given the risk that current Chair Jerome Powell remains on the Board after his term ends, maintaining influence over monetary policy.

Wolfe Research reviewed market reactions to leading candidates, viewing Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett as relatively dovish versus the more hawkish Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh. The firm believes Hassett would likely steepen the yield curve, while Warsh would be a flattener, making Hassett the most market-moving pick.

Roth emphasized she has no strong conviction on Trump’s ultimate choice, noting no single candidate satisfies all the president’s criteria. However, Wolfe Research believes the probability for Hassett should be higher than the 6% currently implied by betting markets, suggesting investors may be underestimating his chances.