Wedbush Securities has downgraded The Trade Desk to Underperform, arguing that Wall Street has wildly overestimated the financial impact of its potential partnership with OpenAI. Analyst Alicia Reese said the stock's 18% rally following reports of the deal was unjustified, as the partnership would generate only modest revenue and earnings contributions in the near term.

Reese pointed out that Wedbush's analysis projects just $42 million in incremental EBITDA by 2027, while the market has assigned a 53x multiple to the deal's supposed value. The firm estimates The Trade Desk could capture only $31 million to $77 million in revenue in 2026 and $56 million to $140 million in 2027, representing a mere 1-4% of projected revenue. Despite acknowledging the partnership's long-term strategic importance for AI search competition, Wedbush believes investors are chasing a "headline pop" rather than substantive economics.

The bank also warned about longer-term structural risks, including the possibility that OpenAI could eventually build its own advertising platform and cut out intermediaries like The Trade Desk. Wedbush maintained a $23 price target on the stock, suggesting limited upside from current levels.