UBS strategists see limited upside for silver prices over the next 12 months despite recent volatility. The bank expects prices to stabilize around current levels near $85 per ounce after sharp swings driven by geopolitical tensions, including the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran.

Silver briefly approached $100 per ounce during recent escalation before retreating below $85, highlighting its limited value as a long-term hedge. UBS notes extreme volatility with realized volatility over the past one to three months around 100%, comparable to or exceeding that of Bitcoin. The bank maintains its broader outlook projecting a peak near $100 per ounce in mid-2026 before easing back toward $85 by March 2027.

Despite the recent price surge, positioning data suggests investors are becoming less enthusiastic about silver. UBS points to fewer ETF long positions and lower Comex open interest, indicating silver is not preferred in uncertain times. The strategists note that even gold typically experiences short-lived price effects during such events, as seen during the first Gulf War. Fundamentally, UBS still expects the market to remain undersupplied, estimating a deficit of roughly 300 million ounces.