President Donald Trump claimed Wednesday that US trade deficits have contracted sharply due to his tariffs, predicting the country will achieve a trade surplus in 2026—its first in decades. Trump asserted the trade deficit "HAS BEEN REDUCED BY 78% BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS," though he didn't specify the timeframe for this claim.

Government data showed the trade deficit fell from $140.5 billion in March 2025 to $27.62 billion in October, though it rose to $56.82 billion in November. December data is expected to reveal a $55.50 billion surplus, the first positive monthly balance since 1975. Despite these monthly improvements, the US still faces an estimated $800 billion deficit for 2025.

Trump's tariffs, ranging from 10% to 50%, reduced Chinese imports to $288 billion in January-November 2025, down from $401 billion the previous year. However, increased imports from other Asian and European countries offset these gains. The goods trade deficit remains near record highs, suggesting the 2026 surplus claim faces significant challenges.