Investors were rattled Wednesday after an Axios report suggested the Trump administration is preparing for potential military action against Iran, with odds of kinetic action at 90%. Equities remained flat while crude oil climbed as traders digested the report circulating among macro and commodity markets.

The report indicates the administration has pursued a two-track approach combining nuclear talks with a massive military buildup, including two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, and hundreds of fighter jets deployed to the Middle East. Despite diplomatic talks between Trump advisers and Iran's Foreign Minister in Geneva, U.S. officials remain pessimistic about reaching a deal, with Vice President Vance noting Iran's unwillingness to acknowledge certain "red lines" set by President Trump.

Market participants appeared cautious about potential escalation, with Israeli officials reportedly preparing for war within days. The report suggests any military campaign against Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long joint U.S.-Israeli operation with broader scope than Israel's 12-day war last June targeting Iran's underground nuclear facilities. The military buildup has intensified recently, with more than 150 U.S. military cargo flights moving weapons systems and ammunition to the region.