European refining margins have dropped more than 70% from November 2025 peaks, putting pressure on oil majors like BP and TotalEnergies. Bank of America now favors TotalEnergies, citing better cash flow outlook and earlier buyback adjustments.

BP’s ongoing asset sales, including over $5 billion in 2025, have failed to reduce net debt meaningfully. The disposal of retail and midstream holdings削弱了长期现金流，推高了公司实现股东回报增长所需的油价 breakeven 点位。

相比之下，TotalEnergies 正在为电力业务的自由现金流拐点做准备，预计将在2027年前推动回购增加。尽管第四季度收益预期下调，但其股价表现优于同行，使其成为BofA的首选欧洲大型石油股。