Wolfe Research projects Tesla's robotaxi business could generate $250 billion in revenue by 2035. This optimistic forecast hinges on a 30% autonomous vehicle penetration rate, a 50% market share for Tesla, and a pricing model of $1 per mile. The firm sees the robotaxi venture as a major long-term revenue driver for the company.

Analyst Emmanuel Rosner sees 2026 as a potentially "catalyst-rich year" for Tesla, monitoring robotaxi expansion and Optimus production. Despite the long-term potential, the analyst remains cautious on near-term earnings, anticipating margin pressure. Expansion costs are expected to weigh on 2026 earnings, with robotaxi-related gross losses estimated at $500 million.

Tesla is currently working to scale its fleet to roughly 7,200 vehicles from 250 by the end of 2025, entering seven new markets in the first half of 2026. Wolfe forecasts gross breakeven within 2027 and potential revenues of around $30 billion by 2030. The company’s energy storage business is also poised for strong growth.