The S&P 500's upward trajectory remains intact despite 2026's volatile start, according to Evercore ISI. Analyst Julian Emanuel maintains that recent geopolitical shocks and AI-driven market anxiety have merely delayed, not derailed, the broader rally. The firm has raised its 2026 earnings per share forecast to $304 from $296, citing elevated earnings beats and a solid economic foundation.

Emanuel points to the S&P 500's 13 percent year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, which exceeded consensus expectations by 6 percentage points. This performance significantly outpaces the pre-pandemic average of 3 percent growth. Evercore identifies the 6,520 level as critical support that should hold during any pullback, presenting a buying opportunity for investors.

The firm recommends adding exposure to AI disruption names during weakness, particularly in technology, materials, and industrials sectors expected to deliver the strongest EPS growth in 2026. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Evercore argues that few systemic risks threaten the market's upward trajectory. The current market hedging for potential conflicts, combined with robust earnings growth, suggests that any pullback toward the 6,520 support level represents an opportunity rather than a warning sign.