Rothschild & Co analysts have overhauled their ratings on major retailers, citing the transformative potential of agentic commerce - automated shopping and replenishment tools. The firm upgraded Walmart to Buy with a $145 price target, while downgrading Dollar General to Sell and maintaining a Neutral stance on Costco.

Analysts see Walmart as a primary beneficiary due to its scale, digital infrastructure, and delivery network. They expect the retailer's operating margins to reach 6% by fiscal 2030 and project 14% three-year EPS growth. By contrast, Dollar General faces pressure as its store renovation cycle peaks and competition from automated delivery services erodes its convenience advantage. The firm's fiscal 2027 EPS estimate is 13% below consensus.

Costco's membership-driven model and narrow assortment make it resilient to structural shifts, but limited exposure to AI-driven digital revenue streams and a valuation near 48x earnings cap upside. Dollar Tree's refocusing strategy after divesting Family Dollar could mirror Dollarama's growth trajectory, supporting near-term earnings 13% above consensus. The analysts grouped retailers into three categories: beneficiaries of agentic commerce, those insulated from it, and those with company-specific drivers.