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RBC upgrades The Gym Group as slowdown lifts earnings

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RBC Capital Markets lifted its rating on The Gym Group Plc to “outperform,” raising the price target to 200p from 155p. The move follows a reassessment of revenue expectations after the growth of lower‑priced off‑peak memberships slowed in the second half of FY25. Analysts see the upgrade as a response to improved pricing dynamics.

Off‑peak members now represent 14% of the total base, up from 10.5% a year earlier, but the adoption rate eased, reducing dilution on average revenue per member. RBC consequently lifted its like‑for‑like revenue growth forecasts to 4% for FY26 and FY27, and nudged adjusted EBITDA estimates upward by roughly 9% and 11% respectively.

Higher earnings prompted RBC to raise the FY26 EV/EBITDA multiple to 7.5x, supporting the new target price. With shares trading near 162p, investors will watch whether the firm can sustain pricing power across all tiers without further membership dilution. Success could reinforce The Gym Group’s position in the competitive UK fitness market.