RBC Capital Markets downgraded OMV to “underperform” from “sector perform,” citing near-term earnings pressure. The brokerage lowered its price target to €46 from €50, while the stock was trading around €49.74. This move follows a strong rally in OMV shares during 2025, leaving the stock looking overvalued, despite headwinds in key operating segments.

Analysts point to challenges in chemicals, where OMV has a larger presence than some peers. They anticipate depressed margins through 2026 due to global overcapacity. Additionally, the company's refining margins are expected to normalize. OMV's exposure to European gas prices is another concern, potentially impacting earnings negatively.

RBC also noted the limited near-term upside from the Borouge Group International transaction. While this deal should boost chemicals earnings over time, OMV's payout policy caps dividends. The firm's updated forecasts assume lower refining margin assumptions and, as a result, reduced OMV’s 2026 net income estimate by 15%.

For investors, the downgrade suggests caution. The analysis indicates OMV trades at a higher EV/DACF multiple than European integrated peers. Investors should watch how OMV navigates these headwinds and if its strategic adjustments can offset the challenging market conditions. Further updates on earnings are expected.