Morgan Stanley downgraded packaging group Mondi to "underweight" from "equal weight," citing valuation concerns and weak earnings visibility. Shares fell more than 3% following the report. The brokerage revised its outlook after observing that Mondi’s group margins have dipped below levels seen during the global financial crisis.

Morgan Stanley now anticipates EBITDA will decline again in 2026 compared to the current year. Their forecast for €958 million in 2026 EBITDA suggests the stock trades at an 8.3x enterprise value multiple, roughly 20% above the company’s historical average. Broader market headwinds are also at play.

Operating rates remain suboptimal across all paper grades, with demand subdued since 2022 due to fragile consumer confidence. The analysts see little improvement in supply-demand dynamics over the next 12 to 18 months. While they model a stronger second half of 2026, the risk remains skewed to the downside, with current trends implying a potential 30% miss versus consensus expectations.