Shares in AP Moeller - Maersk fell nearly 3% in Copenhagen after Bank of America cut its rating to Underperform. BofA argues the risk-reward is skewed downward, citing intensifying structural overcapacity in ocean freight and renewed earnings pressure. The bank lowered its price target to 11,500 Danish crowns, implying about 23% downside.

BofA analysts, led by Muneeba Kayani, see the potential reopening of Red Sea shipping routes as a key headwind. A full reopening in the second quarter of 2026 could add roughly 6% to global capacity, exacerbating an oversupplied market. This follows a year where Maersk shares outperformed peers despite falling spot rates, supported by 2025 demand.

The bank cut its 2026 EBITDA estimate by 26%, placing it 20% below consensus. BofA now expects Maersk to guide for 2026 EBITDA of $4 to $7 billion, versus a consensus of around $6.3 billion. Analysts also flagged potential cash burn and a possible halving of the share buyback program to $1 billion.