South Korea’s semiconductor sector is steering 2026 growth, with chips projected to make up 30% of total exports as a price‑driven super‑cycle enters its third year. BofA Securities notes DRAM prices have climbed 20‑30% YTD, pushing global sales growth to 60% next year in the global market sector.

Exports surged 22% in 2025, contributing 4.6 percentage points to the 3.8% headline growth. Early January saw a 70.2% Y‑over‑Y jump, the fastest since 2017, driven by DRAM price gains that lift government coffers and buoy the won for future infrastructure spending and social welfare programs in 2026.

The upcycle, the longest in decades, raises concentration risks as chip makers now account for nearly 40% of exports, up from 25.4% in 2020. A reversal in DRAM prices or a shift in tech giants’ capex could derail the rally, threatening the won’s stability for the next quarter.

Bank of Korea may lift its growth forecast from 1.8% to a higher rate, while keeping rates steady, according to BofA. Investors should monitor U.S. tariff threats and the central bank’s policy stance, as any sharp price drop could compress margins and slow the export boom for the next.