Kepler Cheuvreux analysts predict a turbulent 2026 driven by President Donald Trump's aggressive geopolitical strategy. They outline three investment themes for this 'global reset trade.' First, American oil equipment companies are positioned to capitalize on a post-Maduro Venezuela, where the U.S. seeks control over vast crude reserves to lower domestic energy costs. Second, the defense sector is booming.

Trump's ambitions for Greenland, increased military spending, and ongoing Russian threats are fueling demand for aerospace and security stocks, even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolves. Third, these pressures are accelerating the 'European sovereignty' trade. Following Mario Draghi's 2024 competitiveness report, the EU is prioritizing autonomy in defense, semiconductors, and energy to reduce reliance on foreign powers.

Kepler notes their global defense basket is hitting new highs as a result of these seismic shifts.