Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded German broadcaster ProSiebenSat.1 to “hold” from “reduce,” arguing its share price has converged to fundamental value after sustained underperformance. The stock rose over 2% following the note, which maintains a €5.00 target price, implying a modest 3.1% upside from the €4.85 close.

The upgrade follows the completion of Italian broadcaster MFE's takeover, which now holds a 76% stake. This deal triggered leadership changes, with MFE’s Marco Giordani becoming CEO. Kepler’s analyst remains skeptical about further synergies, noting the German TV advertising market remains weak, with ProSiebenSat.1’s net ad revenues running 15% below 2019 levels.

Kepler’s forecasts project 2025 sales of €3.76 billion, a 4.2% decline, with adjusted EBITDA falling 21.4% to €438.3 million. The firm sees net financial debt decreasing to €1.20 billion by 2026. The key uncertainty for investors is the timing of a potential full MFE ownership and delisting, which could impact liquidity.