JPMorgan has downgraded Mosaic to Underweight from Neutral, citing deteriorating earnings prospects for 2026 as rising raw material costs and weaker phosphate prices squeeze margins. The bank expects 2026 EBITDA to fall to $1.96 billion from $2.4 billion in 2025, with negative earnings momentum in the first and second quarters.

Mosaic faces mounting pressure from surging input costs, with sulfur prices roughly doubling and expected to add $525 million in annual expenses. The company's Fertilizantes unit EBITDA is forecast to drop to $235 million in 2026 from $567 million, as higher-cost operations in South America shut down. Mosaic generated a free cash flow deficit of $534.6 million before dividends in 2025.

JPMorgan set a $24 price target based on a 6x multiple of its 2026 EBITDA estimate, noting that limited free cash flow beyond the dividend constrains upside. While Mosaic shares have risen about 12% year to date, lagging the broader materials sector's 20% gain, the bank argues the agricultural company is less tied to manufacturing optimism than peers.