JPMorgan enters the fourth-quarter earnings season for European building materials with a cautious stance. Analysts led by Elodie Rall warn of greater downside risks for Lightside names with U.S. exposure, citing the government shutdown and limited storm activity in 2025 that accelerated destocking in roofing.

European trends are holding up better, helping to offset U.S. weakness. However, analysts expect guidance across several companies to remain underwhelming, with weaker Q4 conditions potentially carrying into early 2026. The bank remains more comfortable on Heavyside players like Heidelberg Materials, Holcim, and CRH.

JPMorgan sees select stocks where earnings could be a clearing event. It upgraded Rockwool to Overweight, arguing the removal of Russian assets lifts a key overhang. Conversely, it placed Howden on Negative Catalyst Watch, fearing 2026 consensus earnings growth may prove too optimistic.