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Jefferies Upgrades Vail Resorts, Cuts Live Nation

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Jefferies upgraded Vail Resorts to Buy while downgrading Live Nation to Hold, citing an uneven outlook for leisure stocks in fiscal 2026. The firm also maintained a Hold rating on Six Flags. These moves reflect shifting analyst sentiment on entertainment and recreation companies heading into the new fiscal year.

For Vail, Jefferies pointed to a recent leadership change and the stock's 29% underperformance last year. Trading below 9x estimated 2026 EBITDA, the resort operator's valuation looks attractive. The firm believes pass holder growth and pricing adjustments could drive earnings higher in fiscal 2027, improving on recent post-COVID execution challenges.

Live Nation faces a softer domestic growth outlook, with North America fan growth expected to slow to just 1% in fiscal 2026. While concert revenue may rise, the company is navigating ongoing regulatory scrutiny from the DOJ and FTC. Heavy capital spending on VenueNation could also strain near-term cash flow.