Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded HelloFresh to “hold” from “buy,” cutting its target price by 48% to €5.50 amid a 47.6% revenue contraction in fiscal 2025. The German meal-kit giant’s adjusted EBITDA fell 6% year-over-year to €423 million, missing its own guidance of €415 million–€465 million. Ready-to-eat revenue collapsed 14% in Q4 2025, while meal-kit sales dropped 15% annually to €4.70 billion. Kepler now forecasts a 3.5% decline in ready-to-eat revenue for 2026, projecting group revenue to fall 6.8% to €6.30 billion—contrary to consensus expectations of 3% growth by 2027.

The analyst cited “structurally higher friction in the demand engine” and slashed 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimates by 14.6% to €411 million, with margins dipping to 6.5% from 7.1%. Despite HelloFresh’s €71.2 million free cash flow in 2025, Kepler remains cautious, stating, “we do not see a compelling entry point” even at discounted valuations.

Stocks slipped to €5.22 per share, near a 52-week low, as investors weigh risks. While meal-kit efficiency improved margins to 13.5%, revenue declines overshadowed gains. Kepler urged patience, emphasizing the need for “clearer evidence of RTE reacceleration” before reconsidering its stance.