Goldman Sachs has upgraded Eurobank to 'buy' from 'neutral' while downgrading National Bank of Greece to 'neutral' from 'buy' in a strategic shift on Greek banking stocks. The brokerage maintained 'buy' ratings on Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank, citing strong profitability and resilient growth prospects across the sector.

The four major Greek banks have surged approximately 400% on average since late 2021, outpacing the SX7P banks index's 170% rise. Goldman Sachs raised price targets by roughly 27% on average, primarily driven by a lower assumed cost of capital. Eurobank's target increased to €5 from €3.50, while National Bank of Greece's target rose to €16.75 from €15.10.

The Eurobank upgrade reflects its 'advantageous business mix' with strong presence across Greece, Cyprus, and Bulgaria, delivering sustainable mid-teens return on tangible equity. The National Bank downgrade stems from valuation concerns despite its strong strategic position and highest capitalization among Greek peers at 19.0% CET1 ratio. Goldman expects Greek banks to deliver return on tangible equity averaging 14% to 15% through 2028, with CET1 ratios exceeding 15%.