FinecoBank (FBK) has been placed on Positive Catalyst Watch by J.P. Morgan ahead of its inaugural Capital Markets Day (CMD) on March 4, with analysts raising their 2027 price target to €27 from €26.40 while maintaining an "overweight" rating. The bank anticipates announcing above-consensus growth targets for 2026-2029, which could drive earnings-per-share (EPS) revisions and multiple expansion. J.P. Morgan’s FY26-29 EPS forecasts already exceed Bloomberg consensus by mid-to-high single digits, with the €27 target implying a 21x FY27 multiple versus the current 16x valuation.**

The Italian online bank reported 9% year-on-year customer growth in FY25, up from 6% in FY24, with net new client acquisition surging 56%. J.P. Morgan projects a 10.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in customers through 2029, potentially reaching 2.6 million clients from the current 1.8 million. Total financial assets, including AUM and custody assets, grew at a 15% CAGR from 2022-2025, with guidance of mid-teens CAGR expected for 2026-2029. Revenue estimates for FY29 (€1.95 billion) also outpace Bloomberg consensus (€1.84 billion).

J.P. Morgan highlighted three initiatives set to boost earnings: €12.3 billion in ETF assets under custody (up 50% YoY), €19 billion in equity securities lending, and plans for regulatory approval to offer crypto trading. ETF custody fees could add €7 million annually, while securities lending may generate €38 million in revenue. The bank also plans to expand into Germany, though near-term capital will prioritize reinvestment over dividends.

FBK’s stock is down 11.2% year-to-date and 15.1% relative to the FTSE MIB, trading at €19.72 on Feb. 24. Market cap stands at $14.15 billion, with a 52-week range of €14.25-€23.07. Analysts note the stock’s downturn contrasts with its growth trajectory, suggesting potential upside ahead of the CMD.