BCA Research analysts warn that an energy price spike from Middle East conflict could cost Republicans control of the House in November's midterm elections. The strategists, including Jesse Anak Kuri, note that gasoline price increases typically lag energy price shocks, potentially hitting consumers during peak campaigning.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, closely correlated with U.S. gasoline costs, traded at $74.31 per barrel, up from roughly $67 before recent U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran. Brent crude futures surged to $81.53 per barrel, reflecting market concerns about potential disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The analysts estimate Democrats' chances of winning the House have risen to 40% from 35% due to potential energy shocks. While Middle Eastern conflicts historically boost presidential approval ratings short-term, prolonged fighting could trigger economic impacts that shift voter sentiment. The conflict escalated Wednesday when Iran fired a ballistic missile toward Turkish airspace, marking the first time the fighting has directly involved a NATO member nation.