The U.S. dollar is poised for near-term gains as U.S.-Israel strikes against Iran intensify, according to analysts at Barclays and HSBC. The latest military action, described as larger in scope than previous operations, has reportedly caused significant losses among Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. President Trump outlined sweeping war aims in a video message, signaling an extended campaign.

Barclays' Themistoklis Fiotakis noted that escalating tensions add to dollar tailwinds through higher energy prices and elevated risk aversion, with oil price spikes potentially boosting the greenback by 0.5-1% for every 10% increase. HSBC strategist David May expects the dollar to initially benefit from the geopolitical risk spike, though he cautions that market reactions may differ from the June 2025 Iran conflict when the dollar's safe-haven bounce proved short-lived.

May argues that the earlier pattern did not signal a structural erosion in the dollar's haven status, noting that geopolitical shocks often produce mixed signals across foreign-exchange markets. HSBC warns that the durability of any dollar strength will depend heavily on the broader macroeconomic backdrop and how risk sentiment evolves in the coming days.