The People's Bank of China has extended its gold-buying streak to 16 consecutive months, adding 30,000 troy ounces in February as geopolitical tensions escalate. The PBOC now holds 74.22 million ounces of fine troy gold, maintaining a structural trend of de-dollarization that began in late 2024. Spot gold prices rebounded sharply to $5,171.12 an ounce amid the turmoil.

Global central bank gold purchases show signs of seasonal slowdown, with January averages dropping to just five tons from 27 tons monthly in 2025. Analysts predict that regional instability and the "oil shock" will sustain accumulation throughout 2026. US-listed gold ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net inflows during February, signaling alignment between retail and institutional sentiment with central bank activity.

Market divergence emerges as East Asian and Central European nations lead accumulation, while Poland's central bank proposes selling reserves for defense spending. Russia and Venezuela have emerged as recent sellers, likely seeking liquidity amid sanctions. J.P. Morgan forecasts gold prices averaging $5,055 through 2026, citing persistent central bank demand as a market floor despite short-term volatility from US monetary policy shifts.