Kepler Cheuvreux has downgraded Boliden (BOL) to Hold from Buy, citing limited upside potential after a strong share price rally. Despite raising the target price to SEK 640 from SEK 423, the analyst, Boris Bourdet, believes the stock offers less than 2% upside from current levels. The downgrade reflects higher metal price assumptions.

Bourdet anticipates Boliden's Q4 2025 EBIT, excluding process inventory revaluation, to be SEK 3.8 billion, a 5% miss against consensus. The company's performance should see benefits from solid volumes and a positive SEK400 million contribution from Rönnskär inventories. Investors will be focused on the Odda facility ramp-up after delays.

Boliden's performance is closely tied to metal prices, particularly copper. Bourdet upgraded forecasts based on the surge in metal prices, which drove upward revisions of approximately 20-25% to EPS estimates. The company is a key player in the mining and smelting of base metals, so analyst ratings have a direct impact on the stock.

With rising copper and precious metal prices, management may face questions about mid-term price assumptions. The analyst's views are important, since they impact investor sentiment and, therefore, trading of the stock. Next, investors will be watching Boliden's Q4 earnings report for further developments.