BCA Research warns that Congress will curb President Donald Trump’s most disruptive policy ambitions, but market volatility will rise as he pushes beyond limits. The note points to a recent clash between the White House and the Federal Reserve after Chairman Jerome Powell received a DOJ subpoena over building renovations. Analysts say this is another episode of Trump’s long‑standing attempt to reshape the Fed.

The firm also cites last year’s dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook for alleged mortgage fraud, now before the Supreme Court. Powell has not been charged, and a grand jury could decline to indict, the report notes, citing the DOJ’s poor track record in DC and Virginia. Even if an indictment were issued, a verdict before Powell’s May term end is unlikely.

Politically, BCA sees the Senate, with retiring and moderate Republicans like Senator Thom Tillis, poised to block Trump’s unconventional Fed nominees. With government funding set to lapse in January and House Republicans split, Congress is expected to constrain Trump’s domestic and foreign policies ahead of the November midterms.