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Barclays Says Geopolitical Tensions Signal Market Buying Opportunity

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Barclays analysts are advising investors to view current geopolitical tensions as potential entry points for buying, arguing that markets remain supported by solid economic and earnings fundamentals. In a note to clients, analyst Emmanuel Cau wrote that "US-Iran tail-risks have increased lifting the oil risk premium," but added that "geopolitical flare-ups typically bring good buying opportunity, amid supportive macro & earnings fundamentals."

According to Barclays, volatility tied to artificial intelligence has eased, with "AI hysteria has calmed down," though "growing Tech caution continues to fuel rotation into Europe." The bank noted that single-stock volatility has moderated after "sharp and erratic rotations earlier in Feb," allowing dip buyers to return. Barclays had previously warned that "AI hysteria was looking increasingly overdone," and recent market moves suggest investors are beginning to reassess indiscriminate selling.

The bank highlighted that parts of the market now look tactically attractive, with "Global Tech sector valuations have compressed meaningfully," and relative valuation levels "at their lowest... post-Covid period." Despite ongoing concerns about AI-led disruption and hyperscaler capex spending, Barclays believes earnings momentum remains resilient and that risk-reward has improved. Those tech-related concerns are also said to be driving rotation into what Barclays called "old-economy/ hard asset sectors," contributing to a continued shift from the United States to the rest of the world.