Ashmore Group shares climbed 4% Tuesday after Jefferies upgraded the emerging-market asset manager to buy, raising its price target to 285 pence from 170 pence. The broker cited a turning point in the EM cycle, with net new money of $2.6 billion in Ashmore's fiscal second quarter of 2026, marking the first meaningful improvement in flow trajectory in several years.

Jefferies analysts noted that roughly half of gross inflows came from new mandates, typically reflecting strategic decisions to rebuild EM exposure. The upgrade draws parallels to fiscal 2016 when assets under management were at comparable levels and cumulative inflows of $20 billion followed over subsequent years. The revised target applies a 13 times price-to-earnings multiple to 2027 adjusted earnings per share before adding surplus capital of about 67 pence per share.

The quarterly NNM figure represented an annualized rate above 20%, though analysts cautioned that such a pace is unlikely to repeat. Equities and alternatives accounted for about 20% of AUM and roughly 30% of management fees in fiscal 2025, providing higher-margin, less cyclical revenue streams. Retail channels comprised 4% of AUM in the first half of fiscal 2026, down from about 15% before the COVID-19 pandemic.