Lynx Equity Strategy warns Apple stock faces further downside despite a 10% year-to-date decline. The firm cites deteriorating negotiations with supplier Kioxia, leading to a potential NAND flash pricing spike. This could force Apple to source from Samsung at much higher costs, squeezing profit margins.

The breakdown stems from a pricing dispute, with Kioxia potentially shipping below Apple's forecasted demand. Samsung, without a long-term agreement, could command current market prices, which reports suggest may have risen as much as 100%. This supply shift carries technical risks, as Apple's flash controller is optimized for Kioxia's NAND.

Lynx argues the market underestimates this impact, warning of both margin pressure and stock performance risks ahead. Investors should monitor Apple's supplier negotiations and quarterly margins for signs of the cost squeeze materializing. The situation highlights the vulnerability of tech giants to concentrated supply chains.