Raymond James analyst Josh Beck lowered the price target for Amazon stock, citing a cautious view on Agentic Commerce risks. He sees artificial intelligence as the primary driver of stock performance in 2026. Beck anticipates strong fundamentals, especially in AWS, which is expected to grow significantly. He sees untapped potential in robotics contributing to future gains.

Beck's outlook is supported by positive holiday trends and robust ad performance. He emphasized the importance of AI initiatives like Trainium/Neuron and Alexa+/Rufus. The firm estimates substantial growth potential from Agentic Commerce, which could add ~$400 billion by 2030. The e-commerce sector is already highly competitive, so this could be a challenge.

AWS remains a key area, with projected growth of 22-23% in 2026, driven by AI-related revenue. This includes significant contributions from AI XPU and GPU. Amazon's investments in AI are crucial, as the company competes with Microsoft and Google. Investors should watch AWS product innovation as a critical factor for growth.

Analysts have noted that the AI narrative will be the primary factor influencing stock performance in the coming year. Investors are closely watching Amazon's progress in AI, particularly how it integrates into existing services and how it can generate new revenue streams. The company's ability to navigate the e-commerce landscape is also a key consideration.