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Who's to Blame for Fiscal Dominance?

Markets •
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The debate over fiscal dominance is heating up, with economists pointing fingers at governments and central banks alike. Recent bond market volatility suggests monetary policy is no longer calling the shots. Instead, massive government borrowing and spending are dictating interest rate trends, leaving the Federal Reserve playing catch-up rather than leading the charge.

This shift marks a dangerous departure from the post-2008 era, where central banks held clear command. Now, soaring public debt and persistent inflation have cornered monetary authorities. They face a brutal choice: hike rates to fight inflation and crush the economy, or hold back and let runaway prices erode savings. Neither path offers a clean escape.

Markets are now pricing in political pressure over pure economic data. Investors watch every Treasury auction and budget proposal for clues about the Fed's next move. The real test will be whether central bankers can reclaim their independence or if fiscal policy will continue steering the ship, for better or worse.