Despite the biggest oil supply disruption in recent history with nearly 1 billion barrels lost since the Strait of Hormuz closed 10 weeks ago, oil futures remain surprisingly stable. Benchmark prices are only 66% higher than at the start of the year, with Brent crude lingering around $100—far below previous crisis peaks. This disconnect has puzzled industry observers.

The apparent paradox finds explanation in counterbalancing forces from the world's two largest economies. US oil exports have surged dramatically, jumping from 5.2 million to 8.9 million barrels daily. Meanwhile, China's oil imports have plummeted from approximately 14 million to just 8.5 million barrels daily, effectively neutralizing the supply shock.

Morgan Stanley analysts identify this rebalancing as "the single most important component of the puzzle." The broker's base case assumes the Strait will reopen next month, with full recovery by November. Should US export capacity or Chinese inventory buffers be exhausted before reopening, the market could experience a dramatic price adjustment.