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US Jobs Data Tests Fed Rate Cut Case

Financial Times Markets •
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Economists forecast 57,000 non-farm jobs added in February, a sharp drop from January's 130,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' technical adjustments have repeatedly caught forecasters off guard, with January's figure doubling expectations. The upcoming data will be closely watched by the Federal Reserve ahead of its March 18 rate decision.

Despite positive headline figures, recent weakness in hiring and job openings suggests employment trends may strengthen the case for interest rate cuts. Futures markets currently price a 94 per cent probability of no change this month, with two 0.25 percentage point cuts expected by year-end. Pantheon Macroeconomics warns that labor market weakness could lead to payroll growth undershooting the economy's break-even pace.

Meanwhile, China continues pushing for greater international use of its currency despite capital controls limiting its reserve currency potential. The renminbi has gained traction in trade finance, with Chinese banks increasing cross-border lending. The People's Bank of China recently moved to slow the currency's appreciation to protect export competitiveness. In Europe, Eurozone inflation figures due Tuesday will test the ECB's assertion that inflation is "in a good place," with services inflation remaining stubbornly above 3 per cent despite overall price pressures easing.