EJ Antoni, Trump's former pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, warned the US economy is too fragile to withstand oil prices at $100 per barrel amid the Iran conflict, signaling potential inflation spikes. Antoni, speaking to the Financial Times shortly before the Fed's March meeting, stated, 'The economy is weaker than we thought it was, and inflation is worse than we thought it was.' He explained that lower 2025 energy prices previously helped curb inflation, but higher prices now will exert the opposite pressure. This comes as Brent crude surged 5% to nearly $110 a barrel, pushing US pump prices to $3.84 per gallon and diesel above $5.00.

Republicans worry these costs will hurt their midterm election prospects. Antoni's nomination was abruptly withdrawn after he criticized the BLS data as 'a random number generator,' following Trump's dismissal of the previous commissioner over a 'rigged' jobs report. His remarks underscore growing concerns about the economy's resilience as US GDP was revised down to 0.7% in late 2025 and February wholesale prices rose faster than expected.

Antoni also highlighted a lack of job growth, noting January's gains were largely erased by a 92,000 job loss in February. His warnings add pressure on the Fed and highlight the economic risks of the escalating conflict.