Russia is capitalizing on surging fertilizer prices triggered by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, as Middle Eastern producers halt operations and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes uncertain. The price of Middle East urea, the global benchmark, has jumped 44 percent to over $670 a tonne since the conflict began.

Russia's dominance in the global fertilizer market is substantial, accounting for 23 percent of ammonia exports and 40 percent of potash alongside Belarus. This positions Moscow to benefit significantly as alternative suppliers struggle. The crisis has already added approximately $150 million in daily oil revenue to Russia's budget, compounding the financial windfall.

European Union countries reliant on fertilizer imports are feeling the pressure, with Hungary's government urging Brussels to ease sanctions on Russian fertilizers. Russian officials are framing the commodity market disruption as leverage to soften Western sanctions, with Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev declaring Russia "well positioned for the predicted Era of Extreme Scarcity." Moscow's ability to prioritize domestic production and affect global markets underscores how the conflict extends beyond energy to critical agricultural inputs.