Treasuries found relief as long yields declined, aiding Scott Bessent's efforts to control yields. However, mentor Stanley Druckenmiller criticized Bessent's buyback strategy as "price management" in a Wall Street Journal piece, sparking talk of financial repression. Meanwhile, Nvidia reports earnings as the second most valuable company ever.

The author revisits prediction markets, maintaining skepticism about their hyper-financialization of serious events and warped incentives. Despite reservations, they acknowledge growing adoption by traders as an additional data source. Morgan Stanley reports Kalshi markets provide accurate signals on Federal Reserve decisions and CPI inflation, recently outperforming Bloomberg consensus forecasts. For GDP, payrolls, and unemployment, accuracy matches other indicators but offers earlier reads. Morgan Stanley plans to incorporate Kalshi signals into strategy notes and distribute standardized series to clients.

Federal Reserve researchers also recognize prediction markets' value, noting their transparent, continuously updated expectations with competitive forecast performance. As liquidity deepens, these markets could enhance real-time policy analysis. The author recalls similar economic derivatives in the late 1990s that failed due to hedging difficulties, particularly with unpredictable payrolls data. Integration with platforms like Robinhood is boosting economics and politics trading volume, currently at 0.6% of Kalshi's total.