Oil has surged past $90, echoing the pre‑deal levels that marked the flare‑up of the Iran war. The global economy, however, proves more resilient to oil shocks than before, meaning Middle Eastern leaders would need a much steeper rise in prices to curb the war’s drivers.

U.S. markets sit on the edge of greed and fear, with a 41 Cape, the highest in decades, and an excess yield of only 1.4%. The S&P 500 is expected to grow 24% this year and 17% by 2027, yet it has stalled, dragging its already volatile semiconductor corner. Robert Shiller highlights these extremes.

Investors face a dilemma: avoid the bubble’s pain or risk missing gains. Ben Inker notes that leverage fuels both inflation and the burst, and that today’s debt mix is now public‑heavy rather than private. Howard Marks’ “good‑enough return” mantra fits the current reality.

Bonds, especially in a high‑inflation regime, are poor hedges; instead, commodities, rare‑earths, and defensive European defence firms offer better protection. Inflation‑protected 10‑year tips yield 2.3%, and sectors like healthcare and smaller Japanese stocks provide alternative core equity exposure.