Oil prices surged as markets opened late on Sunday, spurred by Iran’s ballistic missile strike on Israel. Brent climbed $96.4 a barrel, while WTI crossed $93.1. The move follows a single Iranian attack since the April ceasefire, reigniting fears that a spiral could collapse the fragile truce and close the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia and Russia’s recent production cuts have kept supply tight, but the latest flare‑up has pushed Brent to a peak of $126 during the broader conflict. Investors now weigh the likelihood of a US‑Iran peace deal against the risk that renewed hostilities will choke the 20 % of global oil that traverses the strait.

Trump told the FT that the clashes would not affect Washington’s negotiating power, while Fox News reported he urged Netanyahu not to retaliate. Market participants now face a stark choice: accept the price shock as a temporary cost of geopolitical risk or push for diplomatic resolutions that could reopen the strait and stabilize supplies.

The spike inflates fuel costs for airlines and shipping, tightening margins across the energy sector. Analysts warn that a prolonged standoff could force higher hedging expenses and prompt a reevaluation of supply chain routes that bypass the Hormuz corridor.