Holding stocks has made money, but most individual stocks have underperformed. Arizona State professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s research, updated to 2025, reveals that over 100 years, the value-weighted portfolio return averaged 10.1% annually—compared to 3.3% for T-bills. This 6.6% geometric outperformance, while impressive, takes time to materialize.

A $100 investment in T-bills in 1926 would grow to $2,534 today, while the same amount in stocks would balloon to $1.5 million. Altria, the top performer, would turn $100 into $442 million with reinvested dividends, thanks to its 16.5% annualized return. Nvidia, despite its 37% annualized returns, lacks the century-long track record of older winners like Sperry Corp or LIN Broadcasting. $30 trillion market cap could be Nvidia’s future if it maintains its pace for six more years, but Bessembinder’s data shows only 28% of stocks outperform T-bills. The median stock remains underwater, and half of wealth creation comes from just 46 stocks.

This underscores the challenge of picking winners in a market where even the best fade over time.