Economists expect US inflation data to show a 0.4% monthly increase in the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's key gauge, reflecting the initial impact of the Iran conflict. This figure, released Wednesday, follows a 0.3% January rise and contrasts with the headline CPI expected to surge 0.9% in March due to petrol price hikes. While economists doubt significant second-order inflation effects, the prolonged energy shock raises questions about the ultimate inflationary size.

China's producer prices (PPI) may show their first annual gain since 2022, driven by higher energy costs. Analysts at Citi estimate a 10% oil price rise could eventually lift China's PPI by 1.15 percentage points and CPI by 0.2 points. Despite this potential, near-term consumer price pass-through is limited by government measures to shield motorists, though other factors like AI demand keep prices under close watch.

The euro fell 2.2% against the dollar in March, fearing a repeat of the 2022 energy shock. Eurozone retail sales are expected to decline 0.2% in February, though analysts stress this reflects only a limited portion of the current energy supply shock's impact. The currency's weakness persists despite ECB rate hike expectations, contrasting with the US holding rates steady.