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India rupee crisis deepens as RBI clamps down on banks

Financial Times Markets •
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India's rupee faces renewed pressure as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) imposed a surprise limit on banks' foreign exchange exposure. Banks must reduce net open positions to $100mn daily by April 10, a drastic tightening from previous levels. This follows the rupee breaching another record low of 93.59 against the dollar on Monday, despite initial strength. The RBI has sold over $30bn from reserves this month to support the currency, though falling gold prices hinder efforts. The rupee's sharp depreciation creates a double burden: rising oil import costs fuel inflation and increase subsidy payouts for fuel and fertilisers, while tax revenues likely fall as manufacturing and consumer spending weaken. The government's previous dismissive stance contrasts with current alarm, as crossing 100 rupees/dollar threatens political credibility.

Vedanta Limited, India's largest conglomerate, is set to demerge into five standalone companies by April, unlocking value from its diverse assets including aluminium, zinc, oil & gas, steel and power. Founder Anil Agarwal expects the combined market cap of the new entities to double from $27bn. The plan, approved by shareholders and the National Company Law Tribunal after overcoming petroleum ministry objections, aims to improve capital allocation and risk management across distinct commodity cycles. Vedanta's debt burden is projected to fall from $11bn to $7bn among the new companies. While markets initially reacted positively, the long-term success hinges on independent performance and debt allocation fairness.

Global markets also suffered a significant sell-off this month, with the MSCI All Country World index falling nearly 9% following the Middle East war. This combined with bond losses puts traditional 60-40 portfolios on track for their worst month since 2022. The fuel uncertainty is also making electric vehicles more attractive to Middle Eastern buyers, exemplified by Ferrari's personalised supercar deliveries. The rupee crisis and Vedanta's restructuring highlight India's challenges in managing external pressures and unlocking conglomerate value.