Europe faces a prolonged energy shock, warns Stoppard Energy's former S&P Global strategist. The conflict in the Middle East is escalating beyond temporary supply blockages into infrastructure damage. Qatar's LNG plant, closed for weeks after a drone attack, suffered further ballistic missile strikes, potentially taking three to five years to repair.

Analyst disruption horizons have shifted from days to months, making a two-month resumption the new best-case scenario. Iran's reluctance for quick solutions adds uncertainty. Europe must learn from the 2022 crisis failures.

During that crisis, Europe's scramble for LNG drove prices higher, pricing out poorer nations, while subsidies and storage mandates further inflated costs. A price cap proved ineffective. The core issue remains managing demand through conservation, not just supply replacement.

Governments must prioritize rationing strategies over market forces to avoid industry damage.