Gas prices in Asia and Europe have surged as the conflict in the Middle East spreads, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at a virtual standstill and Qatar’s liquefied natural gas output halted after Iranian strikes on its flagship Ras Laffan production facility. The disruption raises the spectre of a repeat of 2022, when flows of Russian gas to Europe dropped as Moscow prepared and then launched its assault on Ukraine, triggering a price surge that damaged economies.

In sheer volume, this shock could be worse than in 2022. The 80bn cubic metres in annual supply lost from Russia compares to roughly 120bn cubic metres that could be lost from the Middle East due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and shutdown of two Israeli gasfields. However, it all depends on how long the disruption lasts. A prolonged conflict could have a "comparable effect" to the Ukraine war, according to Natasha Fielding at Argus Media, but "if this is a temporary, week-long disruption then there would be no comparison to the watershed moment of 2022".

The current price rise is modest compared with 2022, when the European gas benchmark surpassed €343 per MWh. On Monday it reached about €48/MWh. The Middle East is an important gas-producing region, and Qatar is the dominant force. With relatively few gas pipelines, the vast majority is exported in the form of liquefied natural gas on huge specialised ships. Qatar has turned itself into the world’s second-largest LNG player, accounting for about 20 per cent of global supplies.

Anything that happens to global LNG markets often sets the price in markets like Europe and Asia, said Andreas Schroeder, head of energy analytics at commodity research group ICIS. Qatari LNG production dwarfs that of its neighbour the United Arab Emirates. The only other producer on the Arabian Peninsula is Oman, which has export facilities on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing shipments to continue even when sailing to the Gulf is impossible. China and India are the biggest importers of Qatari LNG followed by Taiwan, Pakistan and South Korea. Meanwhile, US gas exporters stand to benefit from the disruption, with traders diverting cargoes to more lucrative markets as LNG plants operate at maximum capacity.