Prediction markets have swung close to $2 bn on World Cup winners, eclipsing historic betting highs before the tournament opens in Mexico. Polymarket alone has collected $1.8 bn in wagers, while Kalshi, a US‑focused venue, added about $120 m. The expanded 48‑team format promises 40 extra matches, sparking a surge in betting volume for international fans worldwide.

Industry insiders label the World Cup the biggest betting opportunity ever, with Macquarie projecting total bets across venues to hit $50 bn, a 43% jump from Qatar 2022. Polymarket partners with OneFootball, embedding odds into live streams, while Kalshi promotes the event with high‑profile ads featuring José Mourinho and offers final‑match tickets in New York today.

The market’s rapid growth has attracted scrutiny. A Polymarket user allegedly tampered with Paris‑Charles de Gaulle temperature gauges to influence a bet, while U.S. prosecutors pursue insider‑trading cases. Regulators note that liquidity rewards skew trading, as seen with Uzbekistan’s odds at 0.01%, drawing $58 m in volume despite low probability and no significant increase of betting interest.

Meanwhile, lesser‑known platforms like ADI Predict Street lag, trading under $100 k across all World Cup markets. With regulators tightening oversight and advertisers pouring into new football‑related wagers, companies that innovate quickly will capture the next wave of sports‑betting revenue, while those that ignore compliance risks face costly penalties for future.